{"id":832,"date":"2026-06-10T14:23:44","date_gmt":"2026-06-10T20:23:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mex-us.mx\/?p=832"},"modified":"2026-06-10T17:27:15","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T23:27:15","slug":"ganadores-perdedores-y-el-deficit-que-no-se-va","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mex-us.mx\/?p=832","title":{"rendered":"Ganadores, perdedores y el d\u00e9ficit que no se va"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:10px\">Balance econ\u00f3mico real del TMEC \u00b7 Washington, D.C. \u00b7 Mayo 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">El d\u00e9ficit que nadie quiere explicar<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.156), 16px);\">Cuando el TMEC entr\u00f3 en vigor en julio de 2020, sus promotores prometieron reducir el d\u00e9ficit comercial con M\u00e9xico, traer empleos manufactureros y elevar salarios mexicanos. Seis a\u00f1os despu\u00e9s, el balance honesto es inc\u00f3modo para todos. El d\u00e9ficit lleg\u00f3 a $196.9 mil millones en 2025, un r\u00e9cord hist\u00f3rico. Cuando Trump us\u00f3 el d\u00e9ficit con M\u00e9xico como argumento para renegociar el TLCAN en 2016, citaba $63 mil millones de 2017. Hoy ese n\u00famero casi se ha triplicado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-image stk-block-image stk-block stk-57ed864\" data-block-id=\"57ed864\"><figure><span class=\"stk-img-wrapper stk-image--shape-stretch stk--has-lightbox\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"stk-img wp-image-833\" src=\"http:\/\/mex-us.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-7-jun-2026-10_09_35-p.m-1.png\" width=\"1536\" height=\"1024\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mex-us.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-7-jun-2026-10_09_35-p.m-1.png 1536w, https:\/\/mex-us.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-7-jun-2026-10_09_35-p.m-1-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/mex-us.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-7-jun-2026-10_09_35-p.m-1-1024x683.png 1024w, https:\/\/mex-us.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-7-jun-2026-10_09_35-p.m-1-768x512.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/span><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Evoluci\u00f3n del d\u00e9ficit comercial EE.UU.\u2013M\u00e9xico<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes has-small-font-size\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>A\u00f1o<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>D\u00e9ficit bienes<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Import. MX\u2192EE.UU.<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Export. EE.UU.\u2192MX<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Contexto<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>1993<\/td><td>\u2013$1.7B (super\u00e1vit)<\/td><td>\u2013<\/td><td>\u2013<\/td><td>TLCAN a\u00fan no vigente<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2000<\/td><td>$25B<\/td><td>$135B<\/td><td>$110B<\/td><td>Primer quinquenio del TLCAN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2010<\/td><td>$58B<\/td><td>$229B<\/td><td>$171B<\/td><td>Poscrisis financiera<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2016<\/td><td>$63B<\/td><td>$294B<\/td><td>$231B<\/td><td>Trump usa cifra como bandera pol\u00edtica<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2020<\/td><td>$104B<\/td><td>$358B<\/td><td>$254B<\/td><td>Entra en vigor el TMEC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2022<\/td><td>$131B<\/td><td>$454B<\/td><td>$323B<\/td><td>Boom nearshoring poscrisis COVID<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2024<\/td><td>$171B<\/td><td>$505B<\/td><td>$334B<\/td><td>M\u00e9xico: socio #1 de EE.UU.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2025<\/td><td>$196.9B (r\u00e9cord)<\/td><td>$534.9B<\/td><td>$338B<\/td><td>Utilizaci\u00f3n TMEC: 44.8%\u219288.7%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.156), 16px);\">El d\u00e9ficit no creci\u00f3 porque el TMEC fallara t\u00e9cnicamente. Creci\u00f3 porque la econom\u00eda estadounidense sigui\u00f3 siendo el motor de demanda m\u00e1s grande del mundo, y porque los aranceles sobre China convirtieron a M\u00e9xico en el ensamblador preferido para no pagar tarifas del 30%+.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Diferencial arancelario EE.UU. por pa\u00eds de origen (2025)<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes has-small-font-size\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Pa\u00eds de origen<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Arancel efectivo EE.UU. 2025<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>M\u00e9xico (TMEC)<\/td><td>4.18%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Promedio global<\/td><td>9.81%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Alemania<\/td><td>9.79%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Vietnam<\/td><td>12.72%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Jap\u00f3n<\/td><td>13.89%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>China<\/td><td>30.93%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes\" style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.156), 16px);\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><em>&#8220;El d\u00e9ficit con M\u00e9xico y Canad\u00e1 lleg\u00f3 a $263B proyectados en 2025, frente a $125B cuando Trump lo firm\u00f3 en 2020.&#8221;<\/em> \u2014 Economic Policy Institute, diciembre 2025<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Principales exportaciones de M\u00e9xico a EE.UU. (2025)<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes has-small-font-size\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Categor\u00eda<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Valor (USD B)<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>% del total<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Equipos de c\u00f3mputo y electr\u00f3nica<\/td><td>$90.8B<\/td><td>17.0%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Veh\u00edculos automotores<\/td><td>$84.4B<\/td><td>15.8%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Autopartes y accesorios<\/td><td>$67.3B<\/td><td>12.6%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Equipo el\u00e9ctrico<\/td><td>$30.0B<\/td><td>5.6%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Instrumentos m\u00e9dicos<\/td><td>$14.7B<\/td><td>2.7%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Otros bienes manufacturados<\/td><td>$247.7B<\/td><td>46.3%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>TOTAL<\/td><td>$534.9B<\/td><td>100%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-image stk-block-image stk-block stk-8533093\" data-block-id=\"8533093\"><style>.stk-8533093 .stk-img-wrapper{width:103% !important;height:422px !important;}@media screen and (max-width:689px){.stk-8533093 .stk-img-wrapper{width:96% !important;height:227px !important;}}<\/style><figure><span class=\"stk-img-wrapper stk-image--shape-stretch stk--has-lightbox\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"stk-img wp-image-835\" src=\"http:\/\/mex-us.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-10-jun-2026-02_21_46-p.m.png\" width=\"1672\" height=\"941\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mex-us.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-10-jun-2026-02_21_46-p.m.png 1672w, https:\/\/mex-us.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-10-jun-2026-02_21_46-p.m-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/mex-us.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-10-jun-2026-02_21_46-p.m-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/mex-us.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-10-jun-2026-02_21_46-p.m-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/mex-us.mx\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-10-jun-2026-02_21_46-p.m-1536x864.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1672px) 100vw, 1672px\" \/><\/span><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.313), 18px);\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">El nearshoring: la transformaci\u00f3n que nadie predijo<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.156), 16px);\">La IED total recibida por M\u00e9xico en los primeros tres trimestres de 2025 fue de $40,906 millones de d\u00f3lares, con un crecimiento interanual del 14.5%. Destaca el aumento del 218.6% en nuevas inversiones \u2014indicador sensible al entorno regulatorio del TMEC. La tasa de utilizaci\u00f3n del TMEC salt\u00f3 de 44.8% a 88.7% en un solo a\u00f1o (2024\u21922025): casi el doble de empresas reestructur\u00f3 sus cadenas de suministro para calificar para preferencias arancelarias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes\" style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.156), 16px);\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><em>&#8220;Mexico&#8217;s share of total US imports rose from 13.8% to 16.9% in the first two months of 2026, while US-China trade hit its lowest level since the 2009 recession.&#8221;<\/em> \u2014 Mexico Business News, marzo 2026<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:10px\"><em>Fuentes: USTR, US Census Bureau, Congressional Research Service, Economic Policy Institute (dic. 2025), Mexico Business News, CSIS (ago. 2025). An\u00e1lisis independiente.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Balance econ\u00f3mico real del TMEC \u00b7 Washington, D.C. \u00b7 Mayo 2026 El d\u00e9ficit que nadie quiere explicar Cuando el TMEC entr\u00f3 en vigor en julio de 2020, sus promotores prometieron reducir el d\u00e9ficit comercial con M\u00e9xico, traer empleos manufactureros y elevar salarios mexicanos. Seis a\u00f1os despu\u00e9s, el balance honesto es inc\u00f3modo para todos. El d\u00e9ficit [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":834,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[52],"tags":[53],"class_list":["post-832","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agricultura","tag-agricultura"],"blocksy_meta":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mex-us.mx\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/832","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mex-us.mx\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mex-us.mx\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mex-us.mx\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mex-us.mx\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=832"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/mex-us.mx\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/832\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":908,"href":"https:\/\/mex-us.mx\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/832\/revisions\/908"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mex-us.mx\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/834"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mex-us.mx\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=832"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mex-us.mx\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=832"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mex-us.mx\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=832"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}